09/10/2026
🌩️ MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK — THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2026 🌩️
Good morning, weather watchers and storm chasers! 🌩️👋
Another warm and stormy day is shaping up across parts of the country. The Storm Prediction Center has a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms stretching from the Southern High Plains all the way toward the southern Mid-Atlantic coast.
The main concern today will be sporadic damaging wind gusts, while portions of southern Colorado, New Mexico, and potentially the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles could see isolated large hail.
And looking ahead to Friday — things get more interesting across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. 👀
Let’s break it down! ⬇️
🟡 DAY 1 — THURSDAY
📍 SOUTHERN PLAINS → MID-SOUTH → TENNESSEE VALLEY → SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
MARGINAL RISK — Damaging Winds Primary
A cold front stretches from the St. Lawrence Valley southwestward through the Great Lakes, Midwest, central Plains, Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles, and into northeastern New Mexico.
Showers and thunderstorms are already active in portions of the southern Plains and Midwest this morning, with additional storms expected to continue developing this afternoon and evening.
☀️ Strong heating south of lingering clouds and storms will push temperatures into the 90s to around 100°F across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, with upper 80s to mid-90s farther east.
With dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid-70s, instability will increase through the afternoon.
💨 Southern Plains: MLCAPE could reach 2,000–2,500 J/kg, supporting stronger storms and sporadic damaging wind gusts.
💨 Farther east toward the Mid-Atlantic: Instability will be lower, but stronger vertical wind shear could help a few storms organize into bowing segments, with damaging wind gusts remaining the primary concern.
⚠️ Main threats:
• Sporadic damaging wind gusts
• Strong thunderstorms
• Isolated severe wind gusts
• Heavy rainfall in some areas
📍 RATON MESA — SOUTHERN COLORADO → NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
This area deserves a little extra attention for hail today.
Moist upslope flow, moderate instability, steep midlevel lapse rates, and 30–35 knots of deep-layer shear could support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
🧊 Primary threat: isolated hail
A few stronger storms are possible, although increasing stability away from the higher terrain should keep this threat relatively limited and short-lived.
📍 OKLAHOMA & TEXAS PANHANDLES
Storms may also develop along the front and outflow boundaries across portions of the Panhandles.
The environment could support isolated large hail and strong wind gusts, especially where storms can tap into the stronger afternoon instability.
🟠 DAY 2 — FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11
🚨 SLIGHT RISK — CENTRAL NEBRASKA → EASTERN DAKOTAS → MINNESOTA → WISCONSIN
Friday is the day to watch closely.
A stronger upper-level disturbance will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest while increasing southwesterly flow spreads across the region.
At the same time, moisture will increase as southerly winds transport 60-degree dewpoints northward, while cooling aloft helps steepen lapse rates.
A surface low will develop and move east across South Dakota, with a cold front and dryline setting up across the Plains.
⛈️ Initial storms could develop by late afternoon into early evening, with the northern Minnesota area among the locations to watch.
The wind profiles could support supercell thunderstorms capable of ALL severe hazards.
🧊 Large to very large hail — including hail over 2 inches possible
💨 Damaging winds
🌪️ A couple of tornadoes possible
As the evening progresses, storms are expected to increasingly cluster and grow upscale into a larger line of convection, spreading east/northeast through the nighttime hours.
That means the threat could evolve from individual supercells into a more organized line capable of producing widespread damaging wind gusts and large hail.
📍 EASTERN SD → IA → CENTRAL NE
The severe threat becomes more conditional farther south.
Storm development may be more difficult early in the evening because of warmer air aloft and weaker large-scale lift. However, storms could develop later overnight as the cold front catches the dryline and elevated convection develops.
If storms do form, damaging wind gusts and hail will remain possible.
📢 THE BOTTOM LINE
🟡 TODAY: A Marginal Risk stretches from the Southern High Plains toward the southern Mid-Atlantic.
💨 The primary concern is sporadic damaging wind gusts, especially across the Southern Plains and farther east where some storms could organize into bowing segments.
🧊 Southern Colorado → Northeast New Mexico → potentially the OK/TX Panhandles: Keep an eye out for isolated large hail this afternoon and evening.
🚨 FRIDAY: The threat increases across central Nebraska into the Upper Midwest, where a Slight Risk is in place.
Friday could feature supercells capable of large/very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes, before storms potentially grow into a larger east/northeast-moving line overnight.
🌩️ If you're in the Friday risk area, this is one to watch closely!
📱 Keep those weather alerts ON.
🏠 Know where your safe place is.
🚨 Have multiple ways to receive warnings.
🌪️ If a Tornado Warning is issued, get to your safe place immediately.
🌊 And NEVER drive through flooded roads!
Stay weather aware today — and keep Friday on your radar!
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Stay squirrelly, stay storm-ready, and as always, stay weather aware! 🌩️🐿️
