06/09/2026
Have you or a loved one been hurt by the recent CME(s)? You may be entitled to compensation! 😄
All kidding aside, the past week has proven to be a bit on the frustrating side for forecasters and aurora chasers alike. Shall we recap?
The misadventures started a few weeks back when the sun started to enter another surge. These are periods of time where more active regions appear, consequently closing off coronal holes. Our star was VERY active on the far side, launching some pretty impressive CMEs. Then these regions started to rotate to face us. In typical fashion, it did quiet down a bit. However, there was one active region that was particularly angry (AR4455) The spot produced a myriad of flares, and a number of them were upper end M-class and one X-class flare. As a result, several CMEs were launched. The problem was that they were launched in virtually every direction except straight. The one that was the *most* earth-directed was from a smaller M3.3 Flare. Yes, I know. Frustrating, right? Now imagine what the forecasters were tasked with! It is extremely hard to forecast CMEs, let alone ones that are shot off in all different directions, and on top of that there's a Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream in the mix.
Long story short, a G3 watch was placed for June 4/5.
The waiting commences. Media outlets start latching onto the evening of June 4th for widespread Aurora. Here's the problem: the CME arrived around 12:30AM EDT June 5th. (At least the main one, there's evidence that a smaller one was there before the larger kick in the butt from the bigger one) While still correctly forecasted, it came too late for some areas, like North America for aurora. And then there was problem #2: it arrived with a northward magnetic field. Dang. And that northward field persisted until daybreak, when it finally shifted south. Eventually G2 was reached during north American daytime. A few more hits would push though, causing some aurora to linger into the night of the 5th and into the 6th. That's when this picture was taken. The night of June 5th.
While nothing spectacular, it is what I call "technical" aurora, and it checks off state #14 for me - New Hampshire! It still made for a quaint and beautiful little scene. Summertime in the white mountains.
But wait, there's more! On June 6th, a filament fast filament was launched from the southeast part of the sun. In imagery, the shock was quite fast and wide, so this prompted yet another G3 watch to be posted for June 8th (around 6UTC). Well, this one would be even more of a rascal, and wouldn't show up until earlier today! Needless to say, the G3 watch was cancelled - yesterday.
Remember - Aurora chasing is not easy, nor is forecasting when we have such complex eruptions and very little actual tools to help model these dynamic events. I am amazed that we do have the capacity to at least give a heads up on what may be coming given how little data there is out there.
Which brings me to my final point: this is why I, personally, try not to get super hyped over events. Unless they are VERY clear, like May 2024 or October 2024, it can be a setup for disappointment. Even then, it could arrive with a mostly northward field, and end up not doing much anyways. My advice is this: take the information given, and assess your own tolerance to when events do not work out. Are you ok staying up all night for nothing? Driving hundreds of miles for nothing? If you are, great! If not, then really sit down and ask yourself if a glancing blow CME is really with that time.
TL;DR: I miss coronal holes. At least they are a little more predictable. ;)
