12/11/2025
Aurora Forecast for tonight, hope the skies are clear!
SEVERE TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME AURORA & GEOMAGNETIC STORM EVENT POSSIBLE
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FORECAST UPDATE:
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A Significant Geomagnetic Storm event has been forecasted by NOAA/NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Bureau of Meteorology SWFC and UKMO as a result of multiple Earth directed Coronal Mass ejections from Sunspot group AR4274.
X1.7, X1.2 and X5.1 Flares were observed, with Halo Coronal Mass ejections occurring as a result. Most notable a Very Large, Fast, Dense and Energetic Full Halo was produced by the X5.1 Flare.
In relation to these CME's, the Space Weather Prediction Center, has issued a G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch!
This is a very significant occurrence, as this is only the fourth time since 2005 such a High-Level watch has been issued!
(Notable events these G4 watches were issued for in the past include the May 2024 Extreme Geomagnetic Storm and October 2024 Severe events).
NOAA is forecasting G4 (SEVERE) Geomagnetic Storm Conditions possible. Both BoM and UKMO also have issued G4 watches. The Bureau of Meteorology has also noted the possibility for G5 conditions.
(This is very high end wording for forecasts, that are generally intended to remain conservative, unless confidence is good.)
These types of events are increasingly rare and only happen a few times per Solar Cycle.
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This event presents significant and exciting Geomagnetic Storm and Aurora potential for a significant portion of Australia (and the world for that matter) residing within the Mid-High Latitude areas. Should High Level Storming occur within the G4-G5 ranges, Locations within the Low latitude areas may even have a chance.
Auroras could be possible over the next day or two in major cities including Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney and Perth including Locations in between. If Strong Storming does occur, an event of this nature could push as far North as Southern Queensland as has been observed previously.
This sort of setup has become somewhat analogous, to the May 2024 Ganon event due to the nature of multiple incoming coronal mass ejections that contributed to a larger event. Although it must be said there are certainly substantial and notable differences between these events.
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The X5.1 CME is Fast moving and sits somewhere in the range of 1500-1900km/s placing it within the O type category (occasional).
Given the fast moving nature, a rapid Earth arrival is expected, with NOAA placing it around 16UTC November 12th +/- 8hrs. (Australian local time conversions below). The
GOES-19 and LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery indicated an Earth-directed Full-Halo CME associated with this event.
Current WSA–ENLIL modelling places solar wind speed estimates at around 1400km/s on arrival! This is very fast!
The X5.1 Full-Halo CME was observed via STEREO-A (West of Earth) during ejection and appeared as an Earth-directed Very Large Full-Halo CME.
HUXt Modelling places a direct hit at Earth with 96.6% confidence, although there is discrepancy within this model as it suggests a later arrival time and Solar Wind speeds of around 700-800km/s. (modelling included in the comments for those interested).
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If all factors align and modelling verifies, visible auroras could be possible over the next day or so in major cities including Hobart, Melbourne, Sydney, and Perth, as well as locations in between.
The CME’s estimated travel time is around 30 to 40 hours, though this is not guaranteed and could vary.
Upon the CME’s physical arrival, periods of geomagnetic activity will likely increase and decrease over the course of a day or so as the CME structure begins impacting Earth.
This occurs in stages: the shock front/sheath followed by the main body/core.
The configuration of the flux rope determines how well its magnetic alignment couples with the magnetosphere. If the flux rope configuration is poor and contains mostly +Bz, aurora potential will be inhibited.
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IMPORTANT
***It must be said that while the physical setup looks great, we still require good Southward magnetic field connection on arrival with Earth to ensure charge flow can occur and build, to allow for strong storming levels to perpetuate.
Northward alignments for sustained periods can significantly inhibit Aurora potential or almost entirely prevent it. ***
(Think of this as how a magnet works, the opposites attract and allow charge to flow in, like to like repels charge).
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This evening into tomorrow holds significant potential for Aurora Chasers and could produce great displays, should connection occur in the favourable Southward alignment for extended periods.
If you haven't seen an Aurora before, this may be your chance and for those that have, charge you camera batteries.
However, as previously mentioned, nothing is guaranteed. If unfavourable magnetic alignment occurs or the CME is delayed, aurora potential can be significantly diminished.
Keep hope high, but expectations realistic.
Updates will follow once data is received at the L1 (Lagrange Point 1) ACE/DSCOVR satellites, clarifying exactly what this event may bring for us here on Earth.
Stay tuned, and feel free to ask any questions!
More updates will follow as data becomes available.
Useful info in the comments ⬇️
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NOAA estimated impact times in Australian timezones:
16 UTC 12/11/25
AEDT: 0300
AEST: 0200
ACDT: 0230
AWST: 0000
(Australian Times are for the 13th)
Australian-based weather conditions are listed below in the comments, including cloud coverage percentages (ACCESS-G, ECMWF & GFS).
The included map is based on past captures and comparative data from similar geomagnetic storming conditions and their potential extent. It should be used as a guide only, as conditions can vary greatly depending on numerous factors. Additionally, Earth weather effects are not considered by the map.
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