03/03/2026
A Strong Tropical Low/Cyclone is Expected to Bring Significant Rainfall to Much of Eastern QLD Later This Week, With Flooding Likely! 🌀🌧️
After a few days of significant uncertainty regarding what that low in the coral sea is expected to do, we are now coming into the timeframe where modelling is lining up as the low develops in real time, with most data now suggesting that this system will make landfall between Cairns and Townsville as either a weak tropical cyclone (most likely category 1-2 strength) or a strong tropical low 🌀 on Friday or Saturday where it is then likely to track towards the south east down the QLD coastline bringing extensive significant rainfall ⛈️⚠️ to much of eastern QLD where widespread flash and riverine flooding appears likely over the weekend period and possibly into early next week.
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So what can we expect? 🌧️🤷
Of course details will chop and change pretty much right up until the system makes landfall (as is typical with these coral sea systems) however right now the most likely scenario has this system:
-Slowly strengthening over the coral sea while meandering in a westerly direction towards the QLD coastline over the next 3-4 days (as is occuring right now)
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Reaching peak intensity right before landfall on Friday afternoon, night or Saturday morning as a strong tropical low or a weak category 1-2 tropical cyclone.
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Landfall between Cairns and Townsville on between Friday morning and Saturday arvo.
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From there it will likely track south easterly through the interior of eastern QLD generating widespread areas of heavy to locally INTENSE rainfall along a trough connected to it as it moves down the coast (the centre of low pressure will likely be inland from the coast however due to the system drawing in significant moisture from the east the more significant rainfall totals will likely occur within 100kms of the coastline)
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After that it becomes quite uncertain as to what the system will do with some scenarios pushing it out to sea over the central QLD coast, while others push it further south bringing those significant falls to highly populated areas of SEQ and even north eastern NSW next week but as I said, that is very uncertain so I will not go into detail on that just yet. Let’s get through the landfall first!
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So how much rain/wind can we expect? ⛈️💨🤷
Across the northern section of the pink and white circled area significant rainfall accumulations are expected as the tropical low or cyclone makes landfall later this week, with widespread 3 day totals of 150-350mm ⛈️⚠️ likely.
We may see localised higher falls along the north tropical coast and also along the coast extending south to about Mackay but we will have to see how this system evolves before we go into depth regarding exact totals.
Across the central and southern section of the pink and white circled area there is a tad more uncertainty regarding rainfall totals there. However most data suggests that widespread falls of 50-200mm are likely over the weekend and into early next week with some localised falls of up to 300mm becoming possible along the coast between Mackay and Brisbane.
In regards to potential wind impacts within the landfall zone, that is still very much up for debate right now as it all depends on how strong this system can get before impacting the coast. My best bet would have winds of 70-110km/h plausible with this system apon landfall but due to how complex the wind field may be I will leave it at that.
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As always stay safe and keep an eye on official warnings and local info regarding this system over the coming week. It’s going to be interesting for along of Qlders that’s for sure!
Make sure to follow WEDM for more detailed forecasts like this! 😁
Image via WeatherWatch
