01/03/2022
Good evening, neighbors! As I mentioned this morning, we have a very tricky forecast on tap for tonight into tomorrow and really into the next few days. Models, while helpful, are not handling this all that well, in a large part because the resolution is not fine enough to capture the terrain details of the Gorge. So, we're relying a lot on educated guesswork. For now, let's stick with the Sunday night cold front. I'm sure you're waiting with bated breath to hear all the geeky technical details, so here you go.
First, this is a strong cold front dropping down from the NW. It's delayed, by the way, much like many airline flights right now. Apparently Mother Nature's helpers also have Omicron with a dash of Delta. So, cold front from the NW. Very, very strong SW wind aloft: 125 knot jet way up high and 80 knots predicted at 5000'. That's SW, which is key – SW wind doesn't do a great job scouring cold air out of the Gorge. This system has a weak tap into tropical moisture. Peak temps will rise to 0C at 850mb this evening for an effective snow level (where there's no cold air below), of 4500' or so. Key point: there's cold air where you are! That 850mb temp drops back to -2C early tomorrow and -4C to -5C midday tomorrow. The dewpoint (point at which the air becomes saturated) is 14F in Hood River as I write this. Add about 60% of the difference between 14 and 32 to figure out the temp at 100% saturation (precip starts around 85%). That means snow. Additional note: very, very strong downslope flow on the east sides of the Cascades will lead to warmer temps – you can already see this happening with a 42F reading near Warm Springs! (dewpoint 20)
Like I said, it's complicated. Now we will translate everything above into plain English.
Precip's taking its damn time getting here, but get here it will. Snow falls all across the land as the evening progresses; dewpoints are low enough that column saturation should lead to sub-freezing temps. So, we start with snow. When the warmest air swings overhead, we probably see a brief switch to freezing rain, but most of this system should be snow for the central Gorge. To the west (perhaps west of Cascade Locks or perhaps west of Viento) it should be warm enough for rain. To the east (perhaps east of Celilo?) it may be warm enough for rain thanks to downslope warming and SW wind scouring out the cold air. That's a big maybe out there given how cold and dry it is now. Actually, I changed my mind. Some areas out there will get snow and/or freezing rain.
So now we talk about who gets buried tonight. Trout Lake, Snowden, Willard, BZ, Husum: 1.5-2.5 feet of snow by tomorrow afternoon. Parkdale: a little less but still lots. The Dalles: 7-11”. Hood River. Oh dear. If the snow level really stays at Columbia Level, you get a foot or more. Goldendale, exposed to the SW wind, is a bit trickier. 6”? 10”? Get your ass out of bed sometime in the wee hours of Monday to see spectacular snowfall.
Stay away from the mountain passes between tonight and tomorrow afternoon. ODOT and WSDOT, as good as they are, won't be able to keep up with the snowfall rates. Blowing and drifting snow will make for zero visibility and treacherous conditions. Heaviest precipitation will be between midnight and 11am both in the mountains and along the river. Worst of the worst: before 8am, probably, but not guaranteed given the current delay. Along the Columbia, easterlies hold at 35-45 before going nearly calm around midnight, about when the heaviest precip hits.
Tomorrow morning brings fluctuating snow levels and precip types. Well, that'll make for messy roads, won't it? Then the snow level lowers. Will it be cold enough to stay snow below 1000' near Hood River, BZ, Odell, and all the other folks trapped between the warm air in the west and east? Mayyyybeeee. Maybe not. Precipitation eases off as the day goes on and finally stops along the river (still snowy in Trout Lake and Parkdale) around 4pm. The dry weather does not last.
Could I be totally wrong about tonight into Monday? Sure - we'll know in 24 hours! Both NWS offices and I are all struggling with the details of this. We're doing our best to keep you safe, but this is super complicated! Given that, let's ignore the details for the rest of the week for now. Suffice it to say that snow will continue above 1000' (and possibly lower) until Wednesday evening or Thursday, when an ice storm is possible but not guaranteed. That's spectacular, and is going to lead to all sorts of messes. Those messes won't be as big as the mess in my house after I go skiing and scatter all my gear and clothes around on my way to a hot shower, but they'll be close. Safe travels. -TATAS
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