07/13/2026
WEATHER APPS: Got this message from a follower this morning. A good example of how weather apps are pretty much worthless in summer.
Many open the default weather app on their phone, and see constant icons showing raindrops and lightning bolts with high rain chances. And, they get the idea it will rain all day, every day.
Apps can lead you down a bad path during the summer months. Some important points...
*The combination of a moist airmass and the daytime heating process usually leads to “scattered, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. These are rather random in nature, don’t move very quickly, and are very much hit and miss. Mostly miss.
Nobody, and I mean nobody, knows where the storms will fire until we actually see them on radar by early afternoon. We might have a general idea where the best chance of thunderstorm initiation will be, but it is one of the great challenges of summer weather forecasting in Alabama. Most of these storms form between noon and 10:00 p.m. But, on occasion, with a small scale boundary or other feature, you might have a late night or morning shower.
So many times people ask in the morning if it will rain at their event later that day during the afternoon, and the correct answer is that I simply don't know. Your weather app doesn't know, the smartest researchers in the science don't know.
Even when you see the storms forming on radar in the afternoon, they are usually widely spaced, and move erratically. One part of your town might see one inch of rain, but the other side of town is bone dry. Such is life with “scattered afternoon thunderstorms”. We call it the summer thunderstorm lottery.
*“Probability of precipitation” is pretty much worthless in summer around here. Most days, the chance of any one spot getting wet is 20 to 30 percent. Of course, if you happen to be underneath one of the storms that form, you immediately think anyone that says the chance of rain is 20-30 percent is an idiot since you have no way of knowing the rain is only over you. Just to blow your mind, the chance of a storm forming on any given summer afternoon in Alabama is actually around 80 percent, but due to the very scattered nature of the storms, the chance of your neighborhood getting one is only 20-30 percent. Confusing? You bet, and we do our best to stay away from “chance of rain” on summer days. It just doesn’t work well.
*There will be days with a high coverage of showers/storms due to surface fronts, colder air aloft, deeper tropical moisture, etc. On these days the chance of rain for any given spot will be obviously be higher, but it still won't rain everywhere, and it won't rain all day.
*About the only way for us to see a true "wash-out" in summer is when a tropical system is involved.
So... I would encourage you to go beyond the phone app and take a minute to read the brief discussions I write. It will help you make the right decision for your outdoor event... and, thanks as always for following.
