08/02/2026
Based on my review of intelligence reports, military developments, and an analysis of the positions of the countries that currently hold the greatest influence over the Yemeni file, I believe Yemen may be on the verge of entering a new phase, with its early signs potentially emerging within the next six months.
According to the available reports and current indicators, the likelihood of a ground offensive against the Houthis is higher than it has been in years. However, I do not expect such an operation to be led by U.S. ground forces, nor do I believe Saudi Arabia intends to launch a large-scale ground campaign itself, given its reluctance to become further entangled in the Yemeni conflict after its long military involvement since 2015.
In my view, the most likely scenario is that forces aligned with Yemen's internationally recognized government would lead any ground operations, supported by Saudi airpower, logistics, and intelligence, alongside U.S. assistance in intelligence, surveillance, and securing international navigation in the Red Sea.
Several developments support this assessment, including the continued Houthi attacks on international shipping, escalating regional tensions involving Iran, and reports indicating military repositioning, force redeployments, and operational preparations across multiple fronts.
If these conditions remain unchanged, I believe we could witness a gradual military escalation beginning before the end of 2026 and extending into early 2027, with an effort to alter the balance of power on the ground rather than relying solely on airstrikes, as has largely been the case in recent years.
Regarding the population living in Houthi-controlled areas, I believe the primary factor that could motivate a segment of citizens to turn against the group would not be the fighting or airstrikes themselves, but rather a continued deterioration in economic and living conditions to an unbearable level. This would be especially significant if accompanied by ongoing taxation and levies, unpaid salaries, rising prices, expanded recruitment efforts, and the absence of any realistic prospect for improving daily life.
There is, however, another equally important factor: the existence of a credible alternative that earns the public's trust. History has repeatedly shown that people do not mobilize simply because of frustration or hardship. They act when they believe there is a viable alternative capable of providing security, governing effectively, and improving living standards. For that reason, the success of any military campaign will depend not only on military strength but also on the ability of the opposing side to present a convincing political, administrative, and economic vision that gives ordinary Yemenis confidence in a different future.
If such an alternative fails to emerge, many citizens are likely to remain neutral, even if they are dissatisfied with current conditions, because fear of the unknown often outweighs the desire for change.
This political analysis is simply my own assessment based on currently available information and published reports. It should not be interpreted as confirmed fact. The situation in Yemen remains highly dynamic, and any major regional or international development could reshape the entire landscape within a relatively short period.
