01/19/2026
We’re on a G4 watch for tonight! Keep an eye to the sky and look north this evening! Hoping for some magical lights! ✨
Looking to learn more about the Aurora? Vincent Ledvina is a fabulous resource!
G4 / SEVERE geomagnetic storm watch issued for MONDAY NIGHT! This is the HIGHEST level of watch able to be issued by NOAA SWPC--there are decent chances for a widespread auroral display tonight with views reaching deep into mid- and even low-latitudes.
The cause? A solar storm or "CME" forecasted to impact Earth around 1 UT Jan 20 or 7 pm CST Jan 19. This is MONDAY NIGHT. All forecasts have some uncertainty, and we won't know the severity of the geomagnetic storm until the storm arrives.
Here are the key details and how you could see aurora tonight:
What happened?
Active region AR 4341 blasted off an X1.9 solar flare, the strongest since Dec 8. This launched a coronal mass ejection or CME into space which is headed right for Earth. These are like sun "sneezes," but the powerful magnetic field inside the CME can cause geomagnetic storming if it slams into Earth. This solar storm is traveling at over 1400 km/s according to models and may arrive at Earth around 1 UT Jan 20 or 7 pm CST Jan 19. Most of the space weather agencies around the world agree on this timing.
Timing?
All scientific forecasts are given in UT or Universal Time, but I have translated the CME impact time to Central Standard Time (CST) for my North American audience. All solar storm forecasts have some uncertainty, usually around +/- 7 hr, so we could see the CME impact in as early as a couple hours or as late as later tomorrow morning. Earlier impact = stronger CME = (usually) stronger geomagnetic storm. It's also ideal for the CME to impact close to nightfall since most solar storms start to fizzle out after 12-24 hours. IF the forecasts are correct and the CME hits when forecasted, auroras could be seen widespread across the U.S. right after sunset. The best views will come during substorms, though which are brief 15-30 min flareups of activity sending the aurora high in the sky thus making it visible from further away. More on these later...
Who will see aurora?
No one knows this. It's impossible to make any kind of prediction since the root cause (the solar storm) hasn't even arrived, yet! We are in a "hurry up and wait" mode watching for the impact of our CME. If the CME impacts with the forecasted strength, the auroral ovals should expand to lower latitudes probably resting somewhere over the U.S.-Canada border. This would create persistent shows overhead for those areas. Places further south would see the aurora to the north but potentially expanding overhead and high in the sky during substorms! During substorms, aurora could be seen low on the horizon all the way from the U.S.-Mexico border, perhaps! Monitoring substorm activity and the auroral in real-time (Not with the Kp or OVATION tools) is CRUCIALLY IMPORTANT for having the best chances of catching the best part of the show. I have resources at the end of this post for you to look at if you are unfamiliar with substorms.
Aurora chasing tips?
Be safe! It will be brutally cold across a lot of the Upper Midwest in the USA tonight. If you do not dress for the weather and take the right precautions, there may be deadly consequences. Stay close to home if you are chasing, bring blankets, water, and food, and tell someone your plans before you head out. Don't venture away from cell service or carry a satellite phone if you do. Pack lots of chemical handwarmers.
Also, most aurora forecasting apps will be useless once the CME hits (and are mostly useless in general). This is because the majority of the apps use Kp-based and OVATION-based products which can't tell you when a substorm is occuring. If you see the "You have a ___% chance of seeing the aurora at your location"-type of statements, that's OVATION at work. It can't track substorms.
Resources:
I have lots of helpful articles on my site designed to help aurora chasers and go beyond the surface level. You will see a lot of commentary about this storm today, but I live and breathe aurora. This is all I do. I live in Alaska and chase this every night. All of what I say comes from thousands of hours of experience.
Learn about substorms: https://theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/what-is-an-auroral-substorm
Practical guide for substorm tracking: https://theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/a-practical-substorm-guide
Explanation of common space weather data: https://theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/when-will-the-aurora-be-out
Beginner's guide to aurora chasing: https://go.theauroraguy.com/ebook
Aurora photography gear guide: https://theauroraguy.com/blogs/blog/my-top-camera-gear-recommendations-for-aurora-photography
